A deep learning model for early prediction of Alzheimer's disease dementia based on hippocampal MRI
This addresses early prognosis for Alzheimer's disease patients, potentially aiding clinical trial enrollment, but is incremental as it applies deep learning to an existing medical imaging task.
The study tackled predicting progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease dementia using hippocampal MRI, achieving a concordance index of 0.762 on one dataset and 0.781 on another, with improvement to 0.864 when combined with clinical measures.
Introduction: It is challenging at baseline to predict when and which individuals who meet criteria for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) will ultimately progress to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. Methods: A deep learning method is developed and validated based on MRI scans of 2146 subjects (803 for training and 1343 for validation) to predict MCI subjects' progression to AD dementia in a time-to-event analysis setting. Results: The deep learning time-to-event model predicted individual subjects' progression to AD dementia with a concordance index (C-index) of 0.762 on 439 ADNI testing MCI subjects with follow-up duration from 6 to 78 months (quartiles: [24, 42, 54]) and a C-index of 0.781 on 40 AIBL testing MCI subjects with follow-up duration from 18-54 months (quartiles: [18, 36,54]). The predicted progression risk also clustered individual subjects into subgroups with significant differences in their progression time to AD dementia (p<0.0002). Improved performance for predicting progression to AD dementia (C-index=0.864) was obtained when the deep learning based progression risk was combined with baseline clinical measures. Conclusion: Our method provides a cost effective and accurate means for prognosis and potentially to facilitate enrollment in clinical trials with individuals likely to progress within a specific temporal period.