Meta-Weighted Gaussian Process Experts for Personalized Forecasting of AD Cognitive Changes
This work addresses the need for early identification of at-risk Alzheimer's patients and improved clinical trial design, though it is incremental as it builds on existing Gaussian Process methods.
The paper tackled the problem of predicting personalized Alzheimer's Disease cognitive scores over future time points by introducing a meta-weighted Gaussian Process Experts model, which achieved large improvements in forecasting accuracy on the ADNI dataset.
We introduce a novel personalized Gaussian Process Experts (pGPE) model for predicting per-subject ADAS-Cog13 cognitive scores -- a significant predictor of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in the cognitive domain -- over the future 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. We start by training a population-level model using multi-modal data from previously seen subjects using a base Gaussian Process (GP) regression. Then, we personalize this model by adapting the base GP sequentially over time to a new (target) subject using domain adaptive GPs, and also by training subject-specific GP. While we show that these models achieve improved performance when selectively applied to the forecasting task (one performs better than the other on different subjects/visits), the average performance per model is suboptimal. To this end, we used the notion of meta learning in the proposed pGPE to design a regression-based weighting of these expert models, where the expert weights are optimized for each subject and his/her future visit. The results on a cohort of subjects from the ADNI dataset show that this newly introduced personalized weighting of the expert models leads to large improvements in accurately forecasting future ADAS-Cog13 scores and their fine-grained changes associated with the AD progression. This approach has potential to help identify at-risk patients early and improve the construction of clinical trials for AD.