Modeling Engagement Dynamics of Online Discussions using Relativistic Gravitational Theory
This addresses the problem of understanding and forecasting user behavior in online discussions for platform managers and researchers, though it is incremental by applying a novel method to a known bottleneck.
The paper tackles predicting user group engagement and growth rate in online discussions by modeling them as time-varying processes using relativistic gravitational theory, achieving a 0.72 Micro F1 score and 6.01% average error on Reddit data.
Online discussions are valuable resources to study user behaviour on a diverse set of topics. Unlike previous studies which model a discussion in a static manner, in the present study, we model it as a time-varying process and solve two inter-related problems -- predict which user groups will get engaged with an ongoing discussion, and forecast the growth rate of a discussion in terms of the number of comments. We propose RGNet (Relativistic Gravitational Nerwork), a novel algorithm that uses Einstein Field Equations of gravity to model online discussions as `cloud of dust' hovering over a user spacetime manifold, attracting users of different groups at different rates over time. We also propose GUVec, a global user embedding method for an online discussion, which is used by RGNet to predict temporal user engagement. RGNet leverages different textual and network-based features to learn the dust distribution for discussions. We employ four baselines -- first two using LSTM architecture, third one using Newtonian model of gravity, and fourth one using a logistic regression adopted from a previous work on engagement prediction. Experiments on Reddit dataset show that RGNet achieves 0.72 Micro F1 score and 6.01% average error for temporal engagement prediction of user groups and growth rate forecasting, respectively, outperforming all the baselines significantly. We further employ RGNet to predict non-temporal engagement -- whether users will comment to a given post or not. RGNet achieves 0.62 AUC for this task, outperforming existing baseline by 8.77% AUC.