Let's Gamble: Uncovering the Impact of Visualization on Risk Perception and Decision-Making
This work addresses the problem of optimizing visualization choices for risk communication, which is relevant for designers and decision-makers, though it is incremental as it builds on existing research in visualization and psychology.
The study investigated how different data visualization designs affect risk perception and decision-making in a gambling context, finding that icon arrays led to more economically sound behavior while area-proportioned triangles and circles increased gambling likelihood.
Data visualizations are standard tools for assessing and communicating risks. However, it is not always clear which designs are optimal or how encoding choices might influence risk perception and decision-making. In this paper, we report the findings of a large-scale gambling game that immersed participants in an environment where their actions impacted their bonuses. Participants chose to either enter a draw or receive guaranteed monetary gains based on five common visualization designs. By measuring risk perception and observing decision-making, we showed that icon arrays tended to elicit economically sound behavior. We also found that people were more likely to gamble when presented area proportioned triangle and circle designs. Using our results, we model risk perception and decisions for each visualization and provide a ranking to improve visualization selection.