A Classifiers Voting Model for Exit Prediction of Privately Held Companies
This addresses a relevant problem for Private Equity investors by providing a predictive tool, though it is incremental as it uses standard classifiers in a voting ensemble.
The paper tackled predicting exits (e.g., acquisition or IPO) of privately held companies using qualitative data, achieving 63% predictive accuracy with a model combining logistic regression, random forest, and SVM classifiers.
Predicting the exit (e.g. bankrupt, acquisition, etc.) of privately held companies is a current and relevant problem for investment firms. The difficulty of the problem stems from the lack of reliable, quantitative and publicly available data. In this paper, we contribute to this endeavour by constructing an exit predictor model based on qualitative data, which blends the outcomes of three classifiers, namely, a Logistic Regression model, a Random Forest model, and a Support Vector Machine model. The output of the combined model is selected on the basis of the majority of the output classes of the component models. The models are trained using data extracted from the Thomson Reuters Eikon repository of 54697 US and European companies over the 1996-2011 time span. Experiments have been conducted for predicting whether the company eventually either gets acquired or goes public (IPO), against the complementary event that it remains private or goes bankrupt, in the considered time window. Our model achieves a 63\% predictive accuracy, which is quite a valuable figure for Private Equity investors, who typically expect very high returns from successful investments.