Which Pull Requests Get Accepted and Why? A study of popular NPM Packages
This helps PR integrators and creators in software development by providing a tool for workload management and improving PR acceptance rates, though it is incremental as it applies existing methods to a specific domain.
The study tackled the problem of predicting which pull requests (PRs) get accepted in popular NPM packages, achieving an AUC-ROC of 0.95 using a Random Forest model with 14 predictors.
Background: Pull Request (PR) Integrators often face challenges in terms of multiple concurrent PRs, so the ability to gauge which of the PRs will get accepted can help them balance their workload. PR creators would benefit from knowing if certain characteristics of their PRs may increase the chances of acceptance. Aim: We modeled the probability that a PR will be accepted within a month after creation using a Random Forest model utilizing 50 predictors representing properties of the author, PR, and the project to which PR is submitted. Method: 483,988 PRs from 4218 popular NPM packages were analysed and we selected a subset of 14 predictors sufficient for a tuned Random Forest model to reach high accuracy. Result: An AUC-ROC value of 0.95 was achieved predicting PR acceptance. The model excluding PR properties that change after submission gave an AUC-ROC value of 0.89. We tested the utility of our model in practical scenarios by training it with historical data for the NPM package \textit{bootstrap} and predicting if the PRs submitted in future will be accepted. This gave us an AUC-ROC value of 0.94 with all 14 predictors, and 0.77 excluding PR properties that change after its creation. Conclusion: PR integrators can use our model for a highly accurate assessment of the quality of the open PRs and PR creators may benefit from the model by understanding which characteristics of their PRs may be undesirable from the integrators' perspective. The model can be implemented as a tool, which we plan to do as a future work.