Mix-n-Match: Ensemble and Compositional Methods for Uncertainty Calibration in Deep Learning
This addresses uncertainty calibration for deep learning practitioners, offering incremental improvements over existing methods.
The paper tackles the problem of post-hoc calibration for machine learning classifiers by introducing Mix-n-Match strategies, which achieve better data-efficiency and expressive power while maintaining classification accuracy, outperforming state-of-the-art solutions in most experiments.
This paper studies the problem of post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers. We introduce the following desiderata for uncertainty calibration: (a) accuracy-preserving, (b) data-efficient, and (c) high expressive power. We show that none of the existing methods satisfy all three requirements, and demonstrate how Mix-n-Match calibration strategies (i.e., ensemble and composition) can help achieve remarkably better data-efficiency and expressive power while provably maintaining the classification accuracy of the original classifier. Mix-n-Match strategies are generic in the sense that they can be used to improve the performance of any off-the-shelf calibrator. We also reveal potential issues in standard evaluation practices. Popular approaches (e.g., histogram-based expected calibration error (ECE)) may provide misleading results especially in small-data regime. Therefore, we propose an alternative data-efficient kernel density-based estimator for a reliable evaluation of the calibration performance and prove its asymptotically unbiasedness and consistency. Our approaches outperform state-of-the-art solutions on both the calibration as well as the evaluation tasks in most of the experimental settings. Our codes are available at https://github.com/zhang64-llnl/Mix-n-Match-Calibration.