Flexible co-data learning for high-dimensional prediction
This work addresses the problem of improving prediction accuracy in high-dimensional clinical data for researchers and practitioners, though it is incremental as it builds on existing ridge penalty and empirical Bayes frameworks.
The authors tackled the challenge of high-dimensional clinical prediction by developing a method that leverages multiple co-data sources, such as domain knowledge and external studies, to improve predictions. They demonstrated the method on cancer genomics applications, showing substantial performance improvements and stabilized variable selection compared to other prognostic models.
Clinical research often focuses on complex traits in which many variables play a role in mechanisms driving, or curing, diseases. Clinical prediction is hard when data is high-dimensional, but additional information, like domain knowledge and previously published studies, may be helpful to improve predictions. Such complementary data, or co-data, provide information on the covariates, such as genomic location or p-values from external studies. Our method enables exploiting multiple and various co-data sources to improve predictions. We use discrete or continuous co-data to define possibly overlapping or hierarchically structured groups of covariates. These are then used to estimate adaptive multi-group ridge penalties for generalised linear and Cox models. We combine empirical Bayes estimation of group penalty hyperparameters with an extra level of shrinkage. This renders a uniquely flexible framework as any type of shrinkage can be used on the group level. The hyperparameter shrinkage learns how relevant a specific co-data source is, counters overfitting of hyperparameters for many groups, and accounts for structured co-data. We describe various types of co-data and propose suitable forms of hypershrinkage. The method is very versatile, as it allows for integration and weighting of multiple co-data sets, inclusion of unpenalised covariates and posterior variable selection. We demonstrate it on two cancer genomics applications and show that it may improve the performance of other dense and parsimonious prognostic models substantially, and stabilises variable selection.