Conformal Prediction: a Unified Review of Theory and New Challenges
It provides a comprehensive overview for researchers and practitioners interested in reliable uncertainty quantification in machine learning, but is incremental as it focuses on reviewing existing work.
The paper reviews Conformal Prediction, a distribution-free method for generating statistically valid prediction sets with minimal assumptions, and discusses its theoretical foundations and recent advancements.
In this work we provide a review of basic ideas and novel developments about Conformal Prediction -- an innovative distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method, based on minimal assumptions -- that is able to yield in a very straightforward way predictions sets that are valid in a statistical sense also in in the finite sample case. The in-depth discussion provided in the paper covers the theoretical underpinnings of Conformal Prediction, and then proceeds to list the more advanced developments and adaptations of the original idea.