Artificial Intelligence is stupid and causal reasoning won't fix it
This is a philosophical critique questioning the foundational assumptions of AI, potentially impacting how AI development and error analysis are approached.
The paper argues that AI errors stem not from a lack of causal reasoning, but from the fundamental inability of computational systems to understand anything, challenging the view that causal reasoning is the key fix.
Artificial Neural Networks have reached Grandmaster and even super-human performance across a variety of games: from those involving perfect-information (such as Go) to those involving imperfect-information (such as Starcraft). Such technological developments from AI-labs have ushered concomitant applications across the world of business - where an AI brand tag is fast becoming ubiquitous. A corollary of such widespread commercial deployment is that when AI gets things wrong - an autonomous vehicle crashes; a chatbot exhibits racist behaviour; automated credit scoring processes discriminate on gender etc. - there are often significant financial, legal and brand consequences and the incident becomes major news. As Judea Pearl sees it, the underlying reason for such mistakes is that, 'all the impressive achievements of deep learning amount to just curve fitting'. The key, Judea Pearl suggests, is to replace reasoning by association with causal-reasoning - the ability to infer causes from observed phenomena. It is a point that was echoed by Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis in a recent piece for the New York Times: 'we need to stop building computer systems that merely get better and better at detecting statistical patterns in data sets - often using an approach known as Deep Learning - and start building computer systems that from the moment of their assembly innately grasp three basic concepts: time, space and causality'. In this paper, foregrounding what in 1949 Gilbert Ryle termed a category mistake, I will offer an alternative explanation for AI errors: it is not so much that AI machinery cannot grasp causality, but that AI machinery - qua computation - cannot understand anything at all.