Use of Bayesian Network characteristics to link project management maturity and risk of project overcost
This addresses the problem of predicting project overcost for project managers, but it is incremental as it applies an existing technique to a specific domain.
The paper tackles the lack of models linking project management maturity to project success by developing a method using Bayesian networks to estimate the impact of maturity on the risk of project overcost, illustrated with an industrial case.
The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.