Noisy Deductive Reasoning: How Humans Construct Math, and How Math Constructs Universes
This provides a new perspective on the epistemology and practice of mathematics, addressing foundational issues in how humans construct and reason about math.
The paper tackles the problem of modeling mathematical reasoning as a stochastic process, proposing that theoremhood is probabilistic rather than certain, and shows this framework accounts for aspects like research program generation and Bayesian heuristics in mathematics.
We present a computational model of mathematical reasoning according to which mathematics is a fundamentally stochastic process. That is, on our model, whether or not a given formula is deemed a theorem in some axiomatic system is not a matter of certainty, but is instead governed by a probability distribution. We then show that this framework gives a compelling account of several aspects of mathematical practice. These include: 1) the way in which mathematicians generate research programs, 2) the applicability of Bayesian models of mathematical heuristics, 3) the role of abductive reasoning in mathematics, 4) the way in which multiple proofs of a proposition can strengthen our degree of belief in that proposition, and 5) the nature of the hypothesis that there are multiple formal systems that are isomorphic to physically possible universes. Thus, by embracing a model of mathematics as not perfectly predictable, we generate a new and fruitful perspective on the epistemology and practice of mathematics.