Seed Stocking Via Multi-Task Learning
This work addresses the challenge for seed vendors in planning inventory by anticipating farmer needs based on unpredictable weather and variety performance.
The study tackled the problem of predicting seed demand for crop varieties by developing an analytical framework that uses multi-task learning to estimate yield and risk under sparse data conditions, resulting in good performance for seed stocking decisions.
Sellers of crop seeds need to plan for the variety and quantity of seeds to stock at least a year in advance. There are a large number of seed varieties of one crop, and each can perform best under different growing conditions. Given the unpredictability of weather, farmers need to make decisions that balance high yield and low risk. A seed vendor needs to be able to anticipate the needs of farmers and have them ready. In this study, we propose an analytical framework for estimating seed demand with three major steps. First, we will estimate the yield and risk of each variety as if they were planted at each location. Since past experiments performed with different seed varieties are highly unbalanced across varieties, and the combination of growing conditions is sparse, we employ multi-task learning to borrow information from similar varieties. Second, we will determine the best mix of seeds for each location by seeking a tradeoff between yield and risk. Third, we will aggregate such mix and pick the top five varieties to re-balance the yield and risk for each growing location. We find that multi-task learning provides a viable solution for yield prediction, and our overall analytical framework has resulted in a good performance.