Joint Autoregressive and Graph Models for Software and Developer Social Networks
This work addresses specific needs in software engineering for better bug prediction and developer allocation, but it is incremental as it builds on existing methods with network enhancements.
The authors tackled the problem of predicting future bug-prone packages and recommending developers for packages in software repositories by integrating network-derived features with autoregressive models, achieving improved performance over simple autoregression.
Social network research has focused on hyperlink graphs, bibliographic citations, friend/follow patterns, influence spread, etc. Large software repositories also form a highly valuable networked artifact, usually in the form of a collection of packages, their developers, dependencies among them, and bug reports. This "social network of code" is rarely studied by social network researchers. We introduce two new problems in this setting. These problems are well-motivated in the software engineering community but not closely studied by social network scientists. The first is to identify packages that are most likely to be troubled by bugs in the immediate future, thereby demanding the greatest attention. The second is to recommend developers to packages for the next development cycle. Simple autoregression can be applied to historical data for both problems, but we propose a novel method to integrate network-derived features and demonstrate that our method brings additional benefits. Apart from formalizing these problems and proposing new baseline approaches, we prepare and contribute a substantial dataset connecting multiple attributes built from the long-term history of 20 releases of Ubuntu, growing to over 25,000 packages with their dependency links, maintained by over 3,800 developers, with over 280k bug reports.