Stimuli-Sensitive Hawkes Processes for Personalized Student Procrastination Modeling
This addresses personalized intervention for student procrastination in online learning, though it is incremental as it builds on existing Hawkes process methods.
The paper tackled the problem of predicting student procrastination and cramming behaviors in online learning by introducing a stimuli-sensitive Hawkes process model, which outperformed state-of-the-art models in predicting future activity times on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Student procrastination and cramming for deadlines are major challenges in online learning environments, with negative educational and well-being side effects. Modeling student activities in continuous time and predicting their next study time are important problems that can help in creating personalized timely interventions to mitigate these challenges. However, previous attempts on dynamic modeling of student procrastination suffer from major issues: they are unable to predict the next activity times, cannot deal with missing activity history, are not personalized, and disregard important course properties, such as assignment deadlines, that are essential in explaining the cramming behavior. To resolve these problems, we introduce a new personalized stimuli-sensitive Hawkes process model (SSHP), by jointly modeling all student-assignment pairs and utilizing their similarities, to predict students' next activity times even when there are no historical observations. Unlike regular point processes that assume a constant external triggering effect from the environment, we model three dynamic types of external stimuli, according to assignment availabilities, assignment deadlines, and each student's time management habits. Our experiments on two synthetic datasets and two real-world datasets show a superior performance of future activity prediction, comparing with state-of-the-art models. Moreover, we show that our model achieves a flexible and accurate parameterization of activity intensities in students.