Assessing the Early Bird Heuristic (for Predicting Project Quality)
This work addresses the need for efficient and early quality prediction in software projects, suggesting that prior methods may have been unnecessarily complex.
The study tackled the problem of predicting project quality by proposing a simpler alternative that uses only early project data, finding that a model trained on the first 150 commits performs as well or better than state-of-the-art methods across 240 projects.
Before researchers rush to reason across all available data or try complex methods, perhaps it is prudent to first check for simpler alternatives. Specifically, if the historical data has the most information in some small region, perhaps a model learned from that region would suffice for the rest of the project. To support this claim, we offer a case study with 240 projects, where we find that the information in those projects "clump" towards the earliest parts of the project. A quality prediction model learned from just the first 150 commits works as well, or better than state-of-the-art alternatives. Using just this "early bird" data, we can build models very quickly and very early in the project life cycle. Moreover, using this early bird method, we have shown that a simple model (with just a few features) generalizes to hundreds of projects. Based on this experience, we doubt that prior work on generalizing quality models may have needlessly complicated an inherently simple process. Further, prior work that focused on later-life cycle data needs to be revisited since their conclusions were drawn from relatively uninformative regions. Replication note: all our data and scripts are available here: https://github.com/snaraya7/early-bird