Investigating the Significance of Bellwether Effect to Improve Software Effort Estimation
This work addresses software effort estimation for project managers, but it appears incremental as it builds on existing moving window methods.
The study investigated the Bellwether effect in software effort estimation, using moving windows to identify exemplary projects, and found that this approach significantly improved prediction accuracy with a Gaussian weighting function.
Bellwether effect refers to the existence of exemplary projects (called the Bellwether) within a historical dataset to be used for improved prediction performance. Recent studies have shown an implicit assumption of using recently completed projects (referred to as moving window) for improved prediction accuracy. In this paper, we investigate the Bellwether effect on software effort estimation accuracy using moving windows. The existence of the Bellwether was empirically proven based on six postulations. We apply statistical stratification and Markov chain methodology to select the Bellwether moving window. The resulting Bellwether moving window is used to predict the software effort of a new project. Empirical results show that Bellwether effect exist in chronological datasets with a set of exemplary and recently completed projects representing the Bellwether moving window. Result from this study has shown that the use of Bellwether moving window with the Gaussian weighting function significantly improve the prediction accuracy.