DiCE4EL: Interpreting Process Predictions using a Milestone-Aware Counterfactual Approach
This work addresses interpretability for human decision-makers in business process management, but it is incremental as it adapts an existing method to a new domain.
The paper tackles the problem of interpreting predictions in predictive process analytics by extending the DiCE counterfactual algorithm to handle event logs, resulting in DiCE4EL which generates milestone-aware explanations and is demonstrated effective on a real-life dataset.
Predictive process analytics often apply machine learning to predict the future states of a running business~process. However, the internal mechanisms of many existing predictive algorithms are opaque and a human decision-maker is unable to understand \emph{why} a certain activity was predicted. Recently, counterfactuals have been proposed in the literature to derive human-understandable explanations from predictive models. Current counterfactual approaches consist of finding the minimum feature change that can make a certain prediction flip its outcome. Although many algorithms have been proposed, their application to multi-dimensional sequence data like event logs has not been explored in the literature. In this paper, we explore the use of a recent, popular model-agnostic counterfactual algorithm, DiCE, in the context of predictive process analytics. The analysis reveals that DiCE is unable to derive explanations for process predictions, due to (1) process domain knowledge not being taken into account, (2) long traces of process execution that often tend to be less understandable, and (3) difficulties in optimising the counterfactual search with categorical variables. We design an extension of DiCE, namely DiCE4EL (DiCE for Event Logs), that can generate counterfactual explanations for process prediction, and propose an approach that supports deriving milestone-aware counterfactual explanations at key intermediate stages along process execution to promote interpretability. We apply our approach to a publicly available real-life event log and the analysis results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.