Predicting Status of Pre and Post M&A Deals Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques
This work addresses a specific financial prediction problem for risk arbitrageurs, but it appears incremental as it builds on existing ML/DL methods without introducing major innovations.
The paper tackles the problem of predicting the success of M&A deals for risk arbitrage by applying machine learning and deep learning techniques, with preliminary results showing that their methodology outperforms benchmark models like logit and weighted logit models.
Risk arbitrage or merger arbitrage is a well-known investment strategy that speculates on the success of M&A deals. Prediction of the deal status in advance is of great importance for risk arbitrageurs. If a deal is mistakenly classified as a completed deal, then enormous cost can be incurred as a result of investing in target company shares. On the contrary, risk arbitrageurs may lose the opportunity of making profit. In this paper, we present an ML and DL based methodology for takeover success prediction problem. We initially apply various ML techniques for data preprocessing such as kNN for data imputation, PCA for lower dimensional representation of numerical variables, MCA for categorical variables, and LSTM autoencoder for sentiment scores. We experiment with different cost functions, different evaluation metrics, and oversampling techniques to address class imbalance in our dataset. We then implement feedforward neural networks to predict the success of the deal status. Our preliminary results indicate that our methodology outperforms the benchmark models such as logit and weighted logit models. We also integrate sentiment scores into our methodology using different model architectures, but our preliminary results show that the performance is not changing much compared to the simple FFNN framework. We will explore different architectures and employ a thorough hyperparameter tuning for sentiment scores as a future work.