Online Search With Best-Price and Query-Based Predictions
This work addresses decision-making under uncertainty in applications like stock trading by integrating imperfect predictions, offering incremental improvements over extreme information scenarios.
The paper tackles the online search problem by developing learning-augmented algorithms that incorporate potentially erroneous predictions about the maximum price or binary query responses, providing tight or near-tight bounds on worst-case performance as a function of prediction error, with experimental validation on stock market data.
In the online (time-series) search problem, a player is presented with a sequence of prices which are revealed in an online manner. In the standard definition of the problem, for each revealed price, the player must decide irrevocably whether to accept or reject it, without knowledge of future prices (other than an upper and a lower bound on their extreme values), and the objective is to minimize the competitive ratio, namely the worst-case ratio between the maximum price in the sequence and the one selected by the player. The problem formulates several applications of decision-making in the face of uncertainty on the revealed samples. Previous work on this problem has largely assumed extreme scenarios in which either the player has almost no information about the input, or the player is provided with some powerful, and error-free advice. In this work, we study learning-augmented algorithms, in which there is a potentially erroneous prediction concerning the input. Specifically, we consider two different settings: the setting in which the prediction is related to the maximum price in the sequence, as well as the setting in which the prediction is obtained as a response to a number of binary queries. For both settings, we provide tight, or near-tight upper and lower bounds on the worst-case performance of search algorithms as a function of the prediction error. We also provide experimental results on data obtained from stock exchange markets that confirm the theoretical analysis, and explain how our techniques can be applicable to other learning-augmented applications.