Artificial Intelligence and Design of Experiments for Assessing Security of Electricity Supply: A Review and Strategic Outlook
This review addresses the need for efficient methods in energy system modeling for policymakers and researchers, but it is incremental as it synthesizes existing work without new empirical results.
The paper tackles the challenge of assessing security of electricity supply amid energy transition and market liberalization by conducting a systematic literature review to bridge gaps between security assessment, artificial intelligence, and design of experiments, identifying promising applications like AI-based metamodeling and forecasts.
Assessing the effects of the energy transition and liberalization of energy markets on resource adequacy is an increasingly important and demanding task. The rising complexity in energy systems requires adequate methods for energy system modeling leading to increased computational requirements. Furthermore, with complexity, uncertainty increases likewise calling for probabilistic assessments and scenario analyses. To adequately and efficiently address these various requirements, new methods from the field of data science are needed to accelerate current methods. With our systematic literature review, we want to close the gap between the three disciplines (1) assessment of security of electricity supply, (2) artificial intelligence, and (3) design of experiments. For this, we conduct a large-scale quantitative review on selected fields of application and methods and make a synthesis that relates the different disciplines to each other. Among other findings, we identify metamodeling of complex security of electricity supply models using AI methods and applications of AI-based methods for forecasts of storage dispatch and (non-)availabilities as promising fields of application that have not sufficiently been covered, yet. We end with deriving a new methodological pipeline for adequately and efficiently addressing the present and upcoming challenges in the assessment of security of electricity supply.