A Lightweight and Accurate Spatial-Temporal Transformer for Traffic Forecasting
This addresses traffic prediction for urban planning and management, offering a more efficient and accurate solution, though it is incremental as it builds on existing Transformer architectures.
The paper tackles traffic forecasting by predicting traffic at any region using aggregated inflow and outflow data, achieving up to 9.5% RMSE and 12.4% MAPE improvement over state-of-the-art models while reducing training time by up to 90% and parameters significantly.
We study the forecasting problem for traffic with dynamic, possibly periodical, and joint spatial-temporal dependency between regions. Given the aggregated inflow and outflow traffic of regions in a city from time slots 0 to t-1, we predict the traffic at time t at any region. Prior arts in the area often consider the spatial and temporal dependencies in a decoupled manner or are rather computationally intensive in training with a large number of hyper-parameters to tune. We propose ST-TIS, a novel, lightweight, and accurate Spatial-Temporal Transformer with information fusion and region sampling for traffic forecasting. ST-TIS extends the canonical Transformer with information fusion and region sampling. The information fusion module captures the complex spatial-temporal dependency between regions. The region sampling module is to improve the efficiency and prediction accuracy, cutting the computation complexity for dependency learning from $O(n^2)$ to $O(n\sqrt{n})$, where n is the number of regions. With far fewer parameters than state-of-the-art models, the offline training of our model is significantly faster in terms of tuning and computation (with a reduction of up to $90\%$ on training time and network parameters). Notwithstanding such training efficiency, extensive experiments show that ST-TIS is substantially more accurate in online prediction than state-of-the-art approaches (with an average improvement of up to $9.5\%$ on RMSE, and $12.4\%$ on MAPE).