Forecasting COVID- 19 cases using Statistical Models and Ontology-based Semantic Modelling: A real time data analytics approach
This work addresses the problem of predicting and managing COVID-19 spread for public health decision-makers, but it is incremental as it combines existing methods.
The authors tackled COVID-19 case forecasting by developing a model combining statistical time series (SARIMA and FBProphet) with ontology-based semantic modeling, finding that SARIMA performed better for forecasting, and tested it on approximately 497 individual samples to classify COVID-19 risk levels.
SARS-COV-19 is the most prominent issue which many countries face today. The frequent changes in infections, recovered and deaths represents the dynamic nature of this pandemic. It is very crucial to predict the spreading rate of this virus for accurate decision making against fighting with the situation of getting infected through the virus, tracking and controlling the virus transmission in the community. We develop a prediction model using statistical time series models such as SARIMA and FBProphet to monitor the daily active, recovered and death cases of COVID-19 accurately. Then with the help of various details across each individual patient (like height, weight, gender etc.), we designed a set of rules using Semantic Web Rule Language and some mathematical models for dealing with COVID19 infected cases on an individual basis. After combining all the models, a COVID-19 Ontology is developed and performs various queries using SPARQL query on designed Ontology which accumulate the risk factors, provide appropriate diagnosis, precautions and preventive suggestions for COVID Patients. After comparing the performance of SARIMA and FBProphet, it is observed that the SARIMA model performs better in forecasting of COVID cases. On individual basis COVID case prediction, approx. 497 individual samples have been tested and classified into five different levels of COVID classes such as Having COVID, No COVID, High Risk COVID case, Medium to High Risk case, and Control needed case.