Temporal Spatial Decomposition and Fusion Network for Time Series Forecasting
This addresses the lack of flexibility in decomposition and interpretability in deep learning models for time series forecasting, offering a more automated and transparent approach.
The paper tackles the problem of time series forecasting by proposing TSDFNet, a neural network with self-decomposition and attentive feature fusion mechanisms, which eliminates the need for manual feature engineering and improves interpretability, demonstrating performance improvements on over a dozen datasets.
Feature engineering is required to obtain better results for time series forecasting, and decomposition is a crucial one. One decomposition approach often cannot be used for numerous forecasting tasks since the standard time series decomposition lacks flexibility and robustness. Traditional feature selection relies heavily on preexisting domain knowledge, has no generic methodology, and requires a lot of labor. However, most time series prediction models based on deep learning typically suffer from interpretability issue, so the "black box" results lead to a lack of confidence. To deal with the above issues forms the motivation of the thesis. In the paper we propose TSDFNet as a neural network with self-decomposition mechanism and an attentive feature fusion mechanism, It abandons feature engineering as a preprocessing convention and creatively integrates it as an internal module with the deep model. The self-decomposition mechanism empowers TSDFNet with extensible and adaptive decomposition capabilities for any time series, users can choose their own basis functions to decompose the sequence into temporal and generalized spatial dimensions. Attentive feature fusion mechanism has the ability to capture the importance of external variables and the causality with target variables. It can automatically suppress the unimportant features while enhancing the effective ones, so that users do not have to struggle with feature selection. Moreover, TSDFNet is easy to look into the "black box" of the deep neural network by feature visualization and analyze the prediction results. We demonstrate performance improvements over existing widely accepted models on more than a dozen datasets, and three experiments showcase the interpretability of TSDFNet.