Probabilistic Forecasting Methods for System-Level Electricity Load Forecasting
It addresses the need for improved probabilistic load forecasting in energy security, but is incremental as it primarily reviews existing methods.
This paper reviews probabilistic forecasting methods for electricity load forecasting, analyzing various short-term and long-term models to compare their advantages and disadvantages and assess their comparability.
Load forecasts have become an integral part of energy security. Due to the various influencing factors that can be considered in such a forecast, there is also a wide range of models that attempt to integrate these parameters into a system in various ways. Due to the growing importance of probabilistic load forecast models, different approaches are presented in this analysis. The focus is on different models from the short-term sector. After that, another model from the long-term sector is presented. Then, the presented models are put in relation to each other and examined with reference to advantages and disadvantages. Afterwards, the presented papers are analyzed with focus on their comparability to each other. Finally, an outlook on further areas of development in the literature will be discussed.