Investigating Deep Learning Model Calibration for Classification Problems in Mechanics
This work addresses the lack of attention to calibration in mechanics applications, providing a foundation for future domain-specific approaches, though it is incremental as it applies existing calibration techniques to new data.
The paper tackled the problem of deep learning model calibration in engineering mechanics by evaluating multiple methods across seven datasets, finding that ensemble averaging consistently improves calibration while temperature scaling has limited benefits.
Recently, there has been a growing interest in applying machine learning methods to problems in engineering mechanics. In particular, there has been significant interest in applying deep learning techniques to predicting the mechanical behavior of heterogeneous materials and structures. Researchers have shown that deep learning methods are able to effectively predict mechanical behavior with low error for systems ranging from engineered composites, to geometrically complex metamaterials, to heterogeneous biological tissue. However, there has been comparatively little attention paid to deep learning model calibration, i.e., the match between predicted probabilities of outcomes and the true probabilities of outcomes. In this work, we perform a comprehensive investigation into ML model calibration across seven open access engineering mechanics datasets that cover three distinct types of mechanical problems. Specifically, we evaluate both model and model calibration error for multiple machine learning methods, and investigate the influence of ensemble averaging and post hoc model calibration via temperature scaling. Overall, we find that ensemble averaging of deep neural networks is both an effective and consistent tool for improving model calibration, while temperature scaling has comparatively limited benefits. Looking forward, we anticipate that this investigation will lay the foundation for future work in developing mechanics specific approaches to deep learning model calibration.