Predicting Autonomous Vehicle Collision Injury Severity Levels for Ethical Decision Making and Path Planning
This addresses ethical decision-making in autonomous vehicles for public safety, but it is incremental as it builds on existing utilitarian approaches and fuzzy logic methods.
The paper tackles the problem of enabling autonomous vehicles to make ethical decisions during collisions by developing models that predict injury severity levels based on peak deformation and impact velocity, using a novel fuzzy logic-based weighted utility cost function to guide path planning towards minimizing societal harm.
Developments in autonomous vehicles (AVs) are rapidly advancing and will in the next 20 years become a central part to our society. However, especially in the early stages of deployment, there is expected to be incidents involving AVs. In the event of AV incidents, decisions will need to be made that require ethical decisions, e.g., deciding between colliding into a group of pedestrians or a rigid barrier. For an AV to undertake such ethical decision making and path planning, simulation models of the situation will be required that are used in real-time on-board the AV. These models will enable path planning and ethical decision making to be undertaken based on predetermined collision injury severity levels. In this research, models are developed for the path planning and ethical decision making that predetermine knowledge regarding the possible collision injury severities, i.e., peak deformation of the AV colliding into the rigid barrier or the impact velocity of the AV colliding into a pedestrian. Based on such knowledge and using fuzzy logic, a novel nonlinear weighted utility cost function for the collision injury severity levels is developed. This allows the model-based predicted collision outcomes arising from AV peak deformation and AV-pedestrian impact velocity to be examined separately via weighted utility cost functions with a common structure. The general form of the weighted utility cost function exploits a fuzzy sets approach, thus allowing common utility costs from the two separate utility cost functions to be meaningfully compared. A decision-making algorithm, which makes use of a utilitarian ethical approach, ensures that the AV will always steer onto the path which represents the lowest injury severity level, hence utility cost to society.