How Does Traffic Environment Quantitatively Affect the Autonomous Driving Prediction?
This work addresses safety-critical decision-making in autonomous driving by providing insights into environmental impacts, though it is incremental as it builds on existing uncertainty estimation techniques.
The study tackled the problem of quantifying how traffic environments affect autonomous driving trajectory prediction by proposing a framework that estimates epistemic uncertainty to analyze environmental effects. The results showed that kinematic features of the target agent strongly influence prediction error and uncertainty, and deep ensemble methods improved robustness.
An accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for safe and efficient autonomous driving in complex traffic environments. In recent years, artificial intelligence has shown strong capabilities in improving prediction accuracy. However, its characteristics of inexplicability and uncertainty make it challenging to determine the traffic environmental effect on prediction explicitly, posing significant challenges to safety-critical decision-making. To address these challenges, this study proposes a trajectory prediction framework with the epistemic uncertainty estimation ability that outputs high uncertainty when confronting unforeseeable or unknown scenarios. The proposed framework is used to analyze the environmental effect on the prediction algorithm performance. In the analysis, the traffic environment is considered in terms of scenario features and shifts, respectively, where features are divided into kinematic features of a target agent, features of its surrounding traffic participants, and other features. In addition, feature correlation and importance analyses are performed to study the above features' influence on the prediction error and epistemic uncertainty. Further, a cross-dataset case study is conducted using multiple intersection datasets to investigate the impact of unavoidable distributional shifts in the real world on trajectory prediction. The results indicate that the deep ensemble-based method has advantages in improving prediction robustness and estimating epistemic uncertainty. The consistent conclusions are obtained by the feature correlation and importance analyses, including the conclusion that kinematic features of the target agent have relatively strong effects on the prediction error and epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, the prediction failure caused by distributional shifts and the potential of the deep ensemble-based method are analyzed.