Non-Stochastic CDF Estimation Using Threshold Queries
This addresses the challenge of distribution estimation in scenarios like pricing experiments where data is non-i.i.d. and queries are restricted, offering theoretical guarantees for applications in economics and machine learning.
The paper tackles the problem of estimating an empirical cumulative distribution function (CDF) in a setting where data is accessed only through limited threshold queries and generated by an arbitrary, possibly adversarial process, with the main result quantifying the sample complexity up to a constant factor, showing it depends only logarithmically on the domain size.
Estimating the empirical distribution of a scalar-valued data set is a basic and fundamental task. In this paper, we tackle the problem of estimating an empirical distribution in a setting with two challenging features. First, the algorithm does not directly observe the data; instead, it only asks a limited number of threshold queries about each sample. Second, the data are not assumed to be independent and identically distributed; instead, we allow for an arbitrary process generating the samples, including an adaptive adversary. These considerations are relevant, for example, when modeling a seller experimenting with posted prices to estimate the distribution of consumers' willingness to pay for a product: offering a price and observing a consumer's purchase decision is equivalent to asking a single threshold query about their value, and the distribution of consumers' values may be non-stationary over time, as early adopters may differ markedly from late adopters. Our main result quantifies, to within a constant factor, the sample complexity of estimating the empirical CDF of a sequence of elements of $[n]$, up to $\varepsilon$ additive error, using one threshold query per sample. The complexity depends only logarithmically on $n$, and our result can be interpreted as extending the existing logarithmic-complexity results for noisy binary search to the more challenging setting where noise is non-stochastic. Along the way to designing our algorithm, we consider a more general model in which the algorithm is allowed to make a limited number of simultaneous threshold queries on each sample. We solve this problem using Blackwell's Approachability Theorem and the exponential weights method. As a side result of independent interest, we characterize the minimum number of simultaneous threshold queries required by deterministic CDF estimation algorithms.