Targeted Attacks on Timeseries Forecasting
This work addresses security risks in critical applications like medical devices and security systems by revealing new vulnerabilities in time series forecasting models, representing a foundational shift in the field.
The paper tackles the vulnerability of time series forecasting models to adversarial attacks by proposing targeted attacks that specifically manipulate the amplitude and direction of predictions, showing these attacks are more powerful and harder to detect than untargeted ones, with statistical tests confirming their impact.
Real-world deep learning models developed for Time Series Forecasting are used in several critical applications ranging from medical devices to the security domain. Many previous works have shown how deep learning models are prone to adversarial attacks and studied their vulnerabilities. However, the vulnerabilities of time series models for forecasting due to adversarial inputs are not extensively explored. While the attack on a forecasting model might aim to deteriorate the performance of the model, it is more effective, if the attack is focused on a specific impact on the model's output. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation of Directional, Amplitudinal, and Temporal targeted adversarial attacks on time series forecasting models. These targeted attacks create a specific impact on the amplitude and direction of the output prediction. We use the existing adversarial attack techniques from the computer vision domain and adapt them for time series. Additionally, we propose a modified version of the Auto Projected Gradient Descent attack for targeted attacks. We examine the impact of the proposed targeted attacks versus untargeted attacks. We use KS-Tests to statistically demonstrate the impact of the attack. Our experimental results show how targeted attacks on time series models are viable and are more powerful in terms of statistical similarity. It is, hence difficult to detect through statistical methods. We believe that this work opens a new paradigm in the time series forecasting domain and represents an important consideration for developing better defenses.