Self-Supervised Learning for Modeling Gamma-ray Variability in Blazars
This work addresses the challenge of understanding stochastic variability in blazars for astrophysics, but it is incremental as it applies an existing deep learning method to a specific domain.
The authors tackled the problem of modeling complex gamma-ray variability in blazars using a self-supervised Transformer encoder, which predicts flux probability distributions and accommodates data issues like errors and missing values, with a preliminary search finding no significant time-reversal asymmetry.
Blazars are active galactic nuclei with relativistic jets pointed almost directly at Earth. Blazars are characterized by strong, apparently stochastic flux variability at virtually all observed wavelengths and timescales, from minutes to years, the physical origin of which is still poorly understood. In the high-energy gamma-ray band, the Large Area Telescope aboard the Fermi space telescope (Fermi-LAT) has conducted regular monitoring of thousands of blazars since 2008. Deep learning can help uncover structure in gamma-ray blazars' complex variability patterns that traditional methods based on parametric statistical modeling or manual feature engineering may miss. In this work, we propose using a self-supervised Transformer encoder architecture to construct an effective representation of blazar gamma-ray variability. Measurement errors, upper limits, and missing data are accommodated using learned encodings. The model predicts a set of quantiles for the flux probability distribution at each time step, an architecture naturally suited for describing data generated by a stochastic process. As a proof of concept for how the model output can be analyzed to extract scientifically relevant information, a preliminary search for weekly-timescale time-reversal asymmetry in gamma-ray blazar light curves was conducted, finding no significant evidence for asymmetry.