Scenarios and branch points to future machine intelligence
This is an incremental discussion for researchers and policymakers interested in speculative AI futures, focusing on theoretical scenarios rather than empirical advancements.
The paper tackles the problem of predicting future machine intelligence outcomes by outlining four major scenarios and identifying six constraints that could lead to them, without presenting specific results or numbers.
We discuss scenarios and branch points to four major possible consequences regarding future machine intelligence; 1) the singleton scenario where the first and only super-intelligence acquires a decisive strategic advantage, 2) the multipolar scenario where the singleton scenario is not technically denied but political or other factors in human society or multi-agent interactions between the intelligent agents prevent a single agent from gaining a decisive strategic advantage, 3) the ecosystem scenario where the singleton scenario is denied and many autonomous intelligent agents operate in such a way that they are interdependent and virtually unstoppable, and 4) the upper-bound scenario where cognitive capabilities that can be achieved by human-designed intelligent agents or their descendants are inherently limited to the sub-human level. We identify six major constraints that can form branch points to these scenarios; (1) constraints on autonomy, (2) constraints on the ability to improve self-structure, (3) constraints related to thermodynamic efficiency, (4) constraints on updating physical infrastructure, (5) constraints on relative advantage, and (6) constraints on locality.