H2CGL: Modeling Dynamics of Citation Network for Impact Prediction
This work addresses the challenge of accurately forecasting citation counts for researchers and publishers, though it is incremental as it builds on existing graph-based methods with novel enhancements.
The paper tackles the problem of predicting the future citation impact of academic papers by modeling the dynamics of citation networks, and it proposes H2CGL, a graph neural network that incorporates heterogeneity and annual dynamics, achieving significant performance improvements over baselines on two scholarly datasets.
The potential impact of a paper is often quantified by how many citations it will receive. However, most commonly used models may underestimate the influence of newly published papers over time, and fail to encapsulate this dynamics of citation network into the graph. In this study, we construct hierarchical and heterogeneous graphs for target papers with an annual perspective. The constructed graphs can record the annual dynamics of target papers' scientific context information. Then, a novel graph neural network, Hierarchical and Heterogeneous Contrastive Graph Learning Model (H2CGL), is proposed to incorporate heterogeneity and dynamics of the citation network. H2CGL separately aggregates the heterogeneous information for each year and prioritizes the highly-cited papers and relationships among references, citations, and the target paper. It then employs a weighted GIN to capture dynamics between heterogeneous subgraphs over years. Moreover, it leverages contrastive learning to make the graph representations more sensitive to potential citations. Particularly, co-cited or co-citing papers of the target paper with large citation gap are taken as hard negative samples, while randomly dropping low-cited papers could generate positive samples. Extensive experimental results on two scholarly datasets demonstrate that the proposed H2CGL significantly outperforms a series of baseline approaches for both previously and freshly published papers. Additional analyses highlight the significance of the proposed modules. Our codes and settings have been released on Github (https://github.com/ECNU-Text-Computing/H2CGL)