How to Fix a Broken Confidence Estimator: Evaluating Post-hoc Methods for Selective Classification with Deep Neural Networks
This work addresses the issue of unreliable confidence estimation in deep neural networks for practitioners, offering a simple fix that enhances selective classification without retraining.
The paper tackled the problem of selective classification in deep neural networks by evaluating post-hoc methods to fix broken confidence estimators, showing that a simple p-norm normalization of logits significantly improves selective classification performance, making it almost entirely determined by classifier accuracy.
This paper addresses the problem of selective classification for deep neural networks, where a model is allowed to abstain from low-confidence predictions to avoid potential errors. We focus on so-called post-hoc methods, which replace the confidence estimator of a given classifier without modifying or retraining it, thus being practically appealing. Considering neural networks with softmax outputs, our goal is to identify the best confidence estimator that can be computed directly from the unnormalized logits. This problem is motivated by the intriguing observation in recent work that many classifiers appear to have a "broken" confidence estimator, in the sense that their selective classification performance is much worse than what could be expected by their corresponding accuracies. We perform an extensive experimental study of many existing and proposed confidence estimators applied to 84 pretrained ImageNet classifiers available from popular repositories. Our results show that a simple $p$-norm normalization of the logits, followed by taking the maximum logit as the confidence estimator, can lead to considerable gains in selective classification performance, completely fixing the pathological behavior observed in many classifiers. As a consequence, the selective classification performance of any classifier becomes almost entirely determined by its corresponding accuracy. Moreover, these results are shown to be consistent under distribution shift. Our code is available at https://github.com/lfpc/FixSelectiveClassification.