Exploring the Multi-modal Demand Dynamics During Transport System Disruptions
This work addresses urban mobility challenges for transport planners by offering an incremental tool to analyze passenger behavior during disruptions.
The study tackled the problem of understanding how transport disruptions affect passenger mode choice by developing a data-driven method to detect anomalies and cluster multi-modal demand dynamics, providing a tool for categorizing passenger responses and enabling predictive analysis of modal shifts.
Various forms of disruption in transport systems perturb urban mobility in different ways. Passengers respond heterogeneously to such disruptive events based on numerous factors. This study takes a data-driven approach to explore multi-modal demand dynamics under disruptions. We first develop a methodology to automatically detect anomalous instances through historical hourly travel demand data. Then we apply clustering to these anomalous hours to distinguish various forms of multi-modal demand dynamics occurring during disruptions. Our study provides a straightforward tool for categorising various passenger responses to disruptive events in terms of mode choice and paves the way for predictive analyses on estimating the scope of modal shift under distinct disruption scenarios.