Dynamic Mode Decomposition for data-driven analysis and reduced-order modelling of ExB plasmas: II. dynamics forecasting
This work addresses forecasting challenges in plasma physics for applications like Hall thrusters, but it is incremental as it extends an existing method to new configurations.
The paper tackled forecasting plasma dynamics in ExB plasmas using an Optimized Dynamic Mode Decomposition (OPT-DMD) method for reduced-order modeling, showing that it provides reliable short-term predictions with bounded errors in quasi-periodic systems, though performance varies across test cases.
In part I of the article, we demonstrated that a variant of the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) algorithm based on variable projection optimization, called Optimized DMD (OPT-DMD), enables a robust identification of the dominant spatiotemporally coherent modes underlying the data across various test cases representing different physical parameters in an ExB simulation configuration. As the OPT-DMD can be constrained to produce stable reduced-order models (ROMs) by construction, in this paper, we extend the application of the OPT-DMD and investigate the capabilities of the linear ROM from this algorithm toward forecasting in time of the plasma dynamics in configurations representative of the radial-azimuthal and axial-azimuthal cross-sections of a Hall thruster and over a range of simulation parameters in each test case. The predictive capacity of the OPT-DMD ROM is assessed primarily in terms of short-term dynamics forecast or, in other words, for large ratios of training-to-test data. However, the utility of the ROM for long-term dynamics forecasting is also presented for an example case in the radial-azimuthal configuration. The model's predictive performance is heterogeneous across various test cases. Nonetheless, a remarkable predictiveness is observed in the test cases that do not exhibit highly transient behaviors. Moreover, in all investigated cases, the error between the ground-truth and the reconstructed data from the OPT-DMD ROM remains bounded over time within both the training and the test window. As a result, despite its limitation in terms of generalized applicability to all plasma conditions, the OPT-DMD is proven as a reliable method to develop low computational cost and highly predictive data-driven reduced-order models in systems with a quasi-periodic global evolution of the plasma state.