Advanced Deep Regression Models for Forecasting Time Series Oil Production
This work provides a domain-specific solution for hydrocarbon extraction industries to optimize operations and reduce costs, though it is incremental as it builds on existing deep learning techniques.
The research tackled forecasting oil production using deep learning to address inaccuracies from conventional methods, achieving a 37% improvement over linear regression with an LSTM model that had a mean absolute error of 111.16 and R2 score of 0.98.
Global oil demand is rapidly increasing and is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day by 2040. Thus, it is vital for hydrocarbon extraction industries to forecast their production to optimize their operations and avoid losses. Big companies have realized that exploiting the power of deep learning (DL) and the massive amount of data from various oil wells for this purpose can save a lot of operational costs and reduce unwanted environmental impacts. In this direction, researchers have proposed models using conventional machine learning (ML) techniques for oil production forecasting. However, these techniques are inappropriate for this problem as they can not capture historical patterns found in time series data, resulting in inaccurate predictions. This research aims to overcome these issues by developing advanced data-driven regression models using sequential convolutions and long short-term memory (LSTM) units. Exhaustive analyses are conducted to select the optimal sequence length, model hyperparameters, and cross-well dataset formation to build highly generalized robust models. A comprehensive experimental study on Volve oilfield data validates the proposed models. It reveals that the LSTM-based sequence learning model can predict oil production better than the 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN) with mean absolute error (MAE) and R2 score of 111.16 and 0.98, respectively. It is also found that the LSTM-based model performs better than all the existing state-of-the-art solutions and achieves a 37% improvement compared to a standard linear regression, which is considered the baseline model in this work.