Machine-Guided Discovery of a Real-World Rogue Wave Model
This work addresses the challenge of aligning machine learning with scientific goals for more accurate rogue wave forecasting, representing an incremental advance in applying ML to domain-specific physics.
The authors tackled the problem of using machine learning for scientific discovery by developing a new symbolic model for oceanic rogue waves from observational data, achieving better predictive performance on unseen data than existing theory.
Big data and large-scale machine learning have had a profound impact on science and engineering, particularly in fields focused on forecasting and prediction. Yet, it is still not clear how we can use the superior pattern matching abilities of machine learning models for scientific discovery. This is because the goals of machine learning and science are generally not aligned. In addition to being accurate, scientific theories must also be causally consistent with the underlying physical process and allow for human analysis, reasoning, and manipulation to advance the field. In this paper, we present a case study on discovering a new symbolic model for oceanic rogue waves from data using causal analysis, deep learning, parsimony-guided model selection, and symbolic regression. We train an artificial neural network on causal features from an extensive dataset of observations from wave buoys, while selecting for predictive performance and causal invariance. We apply symbolic regression to distill this black-box model into a mathematical equation that retains the neural network's predictive capabilities, while allowing for interpretation in the context of existing wave theory. The resulting model reproduces known behavior, generates well-calibrated probabilities, and achieves better predictive scores on unseen data than current theory. This showcases how machine learning can facilitate inductive scientific discovery, and paves the way for more accurate rogue wave forecasting.