Investigating Fouling Efficiency in Football Using Expected Booking (xB) Model
This addresses a gap in analyzing defensive strategies in football, though it is incremental as it builds on existing metrics with new features and data.
The paper tackles the problem of quantifying fouling efficiency in football by introducing the Expected Booking (xB) model to estimate the likelihood of fouls leading to yellow cards, with validation on FIFA World Cup 2022 data showing improved performance through iterative experiments.
This paper introduces the Expected Booking (xB) model, a novel metric designed to estimate the likelihood of a foul resulting in a yellow card in football. Through three iterative experiments, employing ensemble methods, the model demonstrates improved performance with additional features and an expanded dataset. Analysis of FIFA World Cup 2022 data validates the model's efficacy in providing insights into team and player fouling tactics, aligning with actual defensive performance. The xB model addresses a gap in fouling efficiency examination, emphasizing defensive strategies which often overlooked. Further enhancements are suggested through the incorporation of comprehensive data and spatial features.