Precipitation Prediction Using an Ensemble of Lightweight Learners
This work addresses precipitation forecasting for agriculture and industry, representing an incremental improvement through ensemble methods.
The paper tackled precipitation prediction by proposing an ensemble learning framework with multiple lightweight learners and a controller, achieving first place on the Weather4Cast 2023 competition leaderboards.
Precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in modern agriculture and industry. However, it poses significant challenges due to the diverse patterns and dynamics in time and space, as well as the scarcity of high precipitation events. To address this challenge, we propose an ensemble learning framework that leverages multiple learners to capture the diverse patterns of precipitation distribution. Specifically, the framework consists of a precipitation predictor with multiple lightweight heads (learners) and a controller that combines the outputs from these heads. The learners and the controller are separately optimized with a proposed 3-stage training scheme. By utilizing provided satellite images, the proposed approach can effectively model the intricate rainfall patterns, especially for high precipitation events. It achieved 1st place on the core test as well as the nowcasting leaderboards of the Weather4Cast 2023 competition. For detailed implementation, please refer to our GitHub repository at: https://github.com/lxz1217/weather4cast-2023-lxz.