Can Large Language Models do Analytical Reasoning?
This work addresses the challenge of analytical reasoning in LLMs for sports analytics, offering incremental insights into task complexity and model performance.
The paper investigates the ability of large language models to perform analytical reasoning on sports data, specifically counting points per quarter in NBA and NFL games, finding that GPT-4 performs best with a divide-and-conquer approach, but models struggle more with NBA than NFL tasks due to factors like context length and information density.
This paper explores the cutting-edge Large Language Model with analytical reasoning on sports. Our analytical reasoning embodies the tasks of letting large language models count how many points each team scores in a quarter in the NBA and NFL games. Our major discoveries are in two folds. Firstly, we find among all the models we employed, GPT-4 stands out in effectiveness, followed by Claude-2.1, with GPT-3.5, Gemini-Pro, and Llama-2-70b lagging behind. Specifically, we compare three different prompting techniques and a divide-and-conquer approach, we find that the latter was the most effective. Our divide-and-conquer approach breaks down play-by-play data into smaller, more manageable segments, solves each piece individually, and then aggregates them together. Besides the divide-and-conquer approach, we also explore the Chain of Thought (CoT) strategy, which markedly improves outcomes for certain models, notably GPT-4 and Claude-2.1, with their accuracy rates increasing significantly. However, the CoT strategy has negligible or even detrimental effects on the performance of other models like GPT-3.5 and Gemini-Pro. Secondly, to our surprise, we observe that most models, including GPT-4, struggle to accurately count the total scores for NBA quarters despite showing strong performance in counting NFL quarter scores. This leads us to further investigate the factors that impact the complexity of analytical reasoning tasks with extensive experiments, through which we conclude that task complexity depends on the length of context, the information density, and the presence of related information. Our research provides valuable insights into the complexity of analytical reasoning tasks and potential directions for developing future large language models.