Machine Learning Predicts Upper Secondary Education Dropout as Early as the End of Primary School
It addresses school dropout, a societal challenge affecting students and educators, but is incremental as it extends existing machine learning approaches with longer-term data.
This study tackled the problem of predicting upper secondary education dropout by using a 13-year longitudinal dataset from kindergarten to Grade 9, achieving a mean AUC of 0.61 with data up to Grade 6 and 0.65 with data up to Grade 9.
Education plays a pivotal role in alleviating poverty, driving economic growth, and empowering individuals, thereby significantly influencing societal and personal development. However, the persistent issue of school dropout poses a significant challenge, with its effects extending beyond the individual. While previous research has employed machine learning for dropout classification, these studies often suffer from a short-term focus, relying on data collected only a few years into the study period. This study expanded the modeling horizon by utilizing a 13-year longitudinal dataset, encompassing data from kindergarten to Grade 9. Our methodology incorporated a comprehensive range of parameters, including students' academic and cognitive skills, motivation, behavior, well-being, and officially recorded dropout data. The machine learning models developed in this study demonstrated notable classification ability, achieving a mean area under the curve (AUC) of 0.61 with data up to Grade 6 and an improved AUC of 0.65 with data up to Grade 9. Further data collection and independent correlational and causal analyses are crucial. In future iterations, such models may have the potential to proactively support educators' processes and existing protocols for identifying at-risk students, thereby potentially aiding in the reinvention of student retention and success strategies and ultimately contributing to improved educational outcomes.