Global Vegetation Modeling with Pre-Trained Weather Transformers
This provides a more accurate vegetation modeling approach for climate and ecological researchers, though it's an incremental adaptation of existing technology.
The authors adapted the pre-trained FourCastNet weather forecasting model to estimate global vegetation activity (NDVI) at 0.25° resolution using only meteorological data, demonstrating improved accuracy compared to training from scratch and benchmarking against other data-driven approaches.
Accurate vegetation models can produce further insights into the complex interaction between vegetation activity and ecosystem processes. Previous research has established that long-term trends and short-term variability of temperature and precipitation affect vegetation activity. Motivated by the recent success of Transformer-based Deep Learning models for medium-range weather forecasting, we adapt the publicly available pre-trained FourCastNet to model vegetation activity while accounting for the short-term dynamics of climate variability. We investigate how the learned global representation of the atmosphere's state can be transferred to model the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our model globally estimates vegetation activity at a resolution of \SI{0.25}{\degree} while relying only on meteorological data. We demonstrate that leveraging pre-trained weather models improves the NDVI estimates compared to learning an NDVI model from scratch. Additionally, we compare our results to other recent data-driven NDVI modeling approaches from machine learning and ecology literature. We further provide experimental evidence on how much data and training time is necessary to turn FourCastNet into an effective vegetation model. Code and models will be made available upon publication.