Detection of financial opportunities in micro-blogging data with a stacked classification system
This work addresses the need for real-time market prediction tools for investors by providing a system to filter relevant tweets, though it is incremental as it builds on existing NLP and classification methods.
The paper tackled the problem of detecting positive financial predictions ('opportunities') in tweets to support investor decision-making, achieving a precision of up to 83% using a stacked classification system.
Micro-blogging sources such as the Twitter social network provide valuable real-time data for market prediction models. Investors' opinions in this network follow the fluctuations of the stock markets and often include educated speculations on market opportunities that may have impact on the actions of other investors. In view of this, we propose a novel system to detect positive predictions in tweets, a type of financial emotions which we term "opportunities" that are akin to "anticipation" in Plutchik's theory. Specifically, we seek a high detection precision to present a financial operator a substantial amount of such tweets while differentiating them from the rest of financial emotions in our system. We achieve it with a three-layer stacked Machine Learning classification system with sophisticated features that result from applying Natural Language Processing techniques to extract valuable linguistic information. Experimental results on a dataset that has been manually annotated with financial emotion and ticker occurrence tags demonstrate that our system yields satisfactory and competitive performance in financial opportunity detection, with precision values up to 83%. This promising outcome endorses the usability of our system to support investors' decision making.