Short-term wind speed forecasting model based on an attention-gated recurrent neural network and error correction strategy
This work addresses the challenge of accurate wind speed prediction for grid security and wind power applications, but it is incremental as it builds on existing neural network and decomposition techniques.
The paper tackles short-term wind speed forecasting by proposing a model combining an attention-gated recurrent neural network (AtGRU) with an error correction strategy, which outperforms compared models in three case studies, showing improved accuracy.
The accurate wind speed series forecast is very pivotal to security of grid dispatching and the application of wind power. Nevertheless, on account of their nonlinear and non-stationary nature, their short-term forecast is extremely challenging. Therefore, this dissertation raises one short-term wind speed forecast pattern on the foundation of attention with an improved gated recurrent neural network (AtGRU) and a tactic of error correction. That model uses the AtGRU model as the preliminary predictor and the GRU model as the error corrector. At the beginning, SSA (singular spectrum analysis) is employed in previous wind speed series for lessening the noise. Subsequently, historical wind speed series is going to be used for the predictor training. During this process, the prediction can have certain errors. The sequence of these errors processed by variational modal decomposition (VMD) is used to train the corrector of error. The eventual forecast consequence is just the sum of predictor forecast and error corrector. The proposed SSA-AtGRU-VMD-GRU model outperforms the compared models in three case studies on Woodburn, St. Thomas, and Santa Cruz. It is indicated that the model evidently enhances the correction of the wind speed forecast.