Density Ratio Estimation via Sampling along Generalized Geodesics on Statistical Manifolds
This addresses a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning for tasks requiring stable density ratio estimation, but it is incremental as it builds on geometric reinterpretations of existing methods.
The paper tackles the instability of density ratio estimation when distributions are distant by proposing a method that uses generalized geodesics on statistical manifolds, showing improved performance over existing incremental mixture approaches in experiments.
The density ratio of two probability distributions is one of the fundamental tools in mathematical and computational statistics and machine learning, and it has a variety of known applications. Therefore, density ratio estimation from finite samples is a very important task, but it is known to be unstable when the distributions are distant from each other. One approach to address this problem is density ratio estimation using incremental mixtures of the two distributions. We geometrically reinterpret existing methods for density ratio estimation based on incremental mixtures. We show that these methods can be regarded as iterating on the Riemannian manifold along a particular curve between the two probability distributions. Making use of the geometry of the manifold, we propose to consider incremental density ratio estimation along generalized geodesics on this manifold. To achieve such a method requires Monte Carlo sampling along geodesics via transformations of the two distributions. We show how to implement an iterative algorithm to sample along these geodesics and show how changing the distances along the geodesic affect the variance and accuracy of the estimation of the density ratio. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches using incremental mixtures that do not take the geometry of the