On the Role of Context in Reading Time Prediction
This work addresses a methodological issue in psycholinguistics for researchers studying language comprehension, revealing that prior estimates of context's impact may be inflated, which is incremental but clarifies foundational assumptions.
The study tackled the problem of measuring context's role in reading time prediction by proposing an orthogonalized predictor that separates context from word frequency, finding that context explains much less variance in reading times than previously thought.
We present a new perspective on how readers integrate context during real-time language comprehension. Our proposals build on surprisal theory, which posits that the processing effort of a linguistic unit (e.g., a word) is an affine function of its in-context information content. We first observe that surprisal is only one out of many potential ways that a contextual predictor can be derived from a language model. Another one is the pointwise mutual information (PMI) between a unit and its context, which turns out to yield the same predictive power as surprisal when controlling for unigram frequency. Moreover, both PMI and surprisal are correlated with frequency. This means that neither PMI nor surprisal contains information about context alone. In response to this, we propose a technique where we project surprisal onto the orthogonal complement of frequency, yielding a new contextual predictor that is uncorrelated with frequency. Our experiments show that the proportion of variance in reading times explained by context is a lot smaller when context is represented by the orthogonalized predictor. From an interpretability standpoint, this indicates that previous studies may have overstated the role that context has in predicting reading times.