State space models, emergence, and ergodicity: How many parameters are needed for stable predictions?
This provides a theoretical foundation for understanding parameter thresholds in self-supervised learning, though it is incremental as it applies to simple linear models.
The paper tackles the problem of how many parameters are needed for stable predictions in learning linear dynamical systems, showing that a critical threshold exists where using fewer parameters leads to unbounded error for non-ergodic systems, akin to emergence in large language models.
How many parameters are required for a model to execute a given task? It has been argued that large language models, pre-trained via self-supervised learning, exhibit emergent capabilities such as multi-step reasoning as their number of parameters reach a critical scale. In the present work, we explore whether this phenomenon can analogously be replicated in a simple theoretical model. We show that the problem of learning linear dynamical systems -- a simple instance of self-supervised learning -- exhibits a corresponding phase transition. Namely, for every non-ergodic linear system there exists a critical threshold such that a learner using fewer parameters than said threshold cannot achieve bounded error for large sequence lengths. Put differently, in our model we find that tasks exhibiting substantial long-range correlation require a certain critical number of parameters -- a phenomenon akin to emergence. We also investigate the role of the learner's parametrization and consider a simple version of a linear dynamical system with hidden state -- an imperfectly observed random walk in $\mathbb{R}$. For this situation, we show that there exists no learner using a linear filter which can succesfully learn the random walk unless the filter length exceeds a certain threshold depending on the effective memory length and horizon of the problem.