Data-driven rainfall prediction at a regional scale: a case study with Ghana
This addresses the problem of inaccurate rainfall forecasting in tropical African regions like Ghana, which is crucial for climate resilience, but it is incremental as it builds on existing data-driven and NWP methods.
The study tackled rainfall prediction in Ghana by developing U-Net CNN models for 24-hour forecasts at 12h and 30h lead times, achieving performance that matches or exceeds ECMWF forecasts at 18h lead time and showing improved accuracy when combined with numerical weather prediction models.
With a warming planet, tropical regions are expected to experience the brunt of climate change, with more intense and more volatile rainfall events. Currently, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are known to struggle to produce skillful rainfall forecasts in tropical regions of Africa. There is thus a pressing need for improved rainfall forecasting in these regions. Over the last decade or so, the increased availability of large-scale meteorological datasets and the development of powerful machine learning models have opened up new opportunities for data-driven weather forecasting. Focusing on Ghana in this study, we use these tools to develop two U-Net convolutional neural network (CNN) models, to predict 24h rainfall at 12h and 30h lead-time. The models were trained using data from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, and the GPM-IMERG dataset. A special attention was paid to interpretability. We developed a novel statistical methodology that allowed us to probe the relative importance of the meteorological variables input in our model, offering useful insights into the factors that drive precipitation in the Ghana region. Empirically, we found that our 12h lead-time model has performances that match, and in some accounts are better than the 18h lead-time forecasts produced by the ECMWF (as available in the TIGGE dataset). We also found that combining our data-driven model with classical NWP further improves forecast accuracy.