Analyst Reports and Stock Performance: Evidence from the Chinese Market
This provides incremental evidence on sentiment analysis for stock market prediction, specifically for investors and researchers in the Chinese financial domain.
The study tackled predicting stock performance in the Chinese market by applying NLP to analyze sentiment in analyst reports, finding that positive sentiment increases excess returns and volatility, while negative sentiment increases volatility and trading volume but decreases returns, with stronger effects for positive sentiment.
This article applies natural language processing (NLP) to extract and quantify textual information to predict stock performance. Using an extensive dataset of Chinese analyst reports and employing a customized BERT deep learning model for Chinese text, this study categorizes the sentiment of the reports as positive, neutral, or negative. The findings underscore the predictive capacity of this sentiment indicator for stock volatility, excess returns, and trading volume. Specifically, analyst reports with strong positive sentiment will increase excess return and intraday volatility, and vice versa, reports with strong negative sentiment also increase volatility and trading volume, but decrease future excess return. The magnitude of this effect is greater for positive sentiment reports than for negative sentiment reports. This article contributes to the empirical literature on sentiment analysis and the response of the stock market to news in the Chinese stock market.